COVID

Three years after the start of COVID-19 pandemic, many people are still working from home. But we don't how long that will last. (File photo)David Petkiewicz, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The COVID-19 pandemic brought substantial changes for both employers and their employees. But even after three years, changing — in present tense — is a better way to describe it.

While the federal COVID-19 Public Health Emergency expired on Thursday, the way we work is still adjusting.

Some things, like Zoom and Teams meetings, are probably here to stay. So, too, is more casual work dress. And for many businesses, COVID-19 led to them to take a critical look at their supply chains and where things are made.

But other changes, like working from home, are still up in the air. And whether it's a geopolitical conflict or bank failures — companies and the workforce haven't had time to catch their breath.

"It feels like that earthquake simulator at the National History Museum," said Bethia Burke, president of the Fund for Our Economic Future. "The shocks that have been coming are not as big as the pandemic. But they just continue to come in an unpredictable way."

That unpredictability is apparent when you look at surveys. In Engage! Cleveland's fourth State of the Young Professional Community report, they asked workers how COVID-19 has been affecting them.

In 2023, 63% of young professionals say they work a hybrid schedule, meaning that they work remotely from home at least part time each week. Another 11% worked completely remotely and 26% commuted to the office 100% of the time.

But when asked about how permanent their situation was, 52% of them said their work situation was temporary, and 16% were unsure.

In the 2021 survey, 45% of young professionals worked at home full time, 44% had hybrid schedules and just 11% were in the office every day.

With major employers like FirstEnergy and Medical Mutual cutting office space, it's a safe bet that at least some companies will keep hybrid work. But whether working from home becomes "normal" or not is unclear.

Burke said the demographic of the workforce changed a lot over the past two decades, but it took a huge outside event to trigger changes. That meant that many needs were brought to the surface and were starting to be addressed.

But flexibility and working from home is different. Burke said everyone was forced to break a norm when the pandemic sent workers home. And there's no collective agreement around a new norm.

Companies, Burke said, continue to put in temporary measures that "sets up the potential for a game of chicken."

Employers have the option to call their employees back to the office, and there's always the chance that many won't want to go back. That begs two questions: Do employers feel like they’ll lose employees? And do workers have enough security to say no?

SueAnn Naso, president and CEO of Staffing Solutions Enterprises, said in January that there wasn't a "new normal" yet. And even in May more things have changed. She's recently seen a push, especially from companies in downtown Cleveland, to get employees in the office.

Throughout the pandemic, people have argued that the labor shortage is keeping remote work available — because workers can demand it.

Unemployment is still historically low, at 3.4% across the U.S. and 3.8% in Ohio. But some sectors, like tech, have been laying off workers and trimming down, Naso said.

Where Are the Workers? —a project launched in 2022 by the Fund and other organizations —found that it was a worker's market and highlighted the needs that many employees wanted addressed.

Increasing inflation, and the uncertainty around the economy, makes workers feel less comfortable, Burke said. But she said there is still a feeling among workers that they can find another job.

Burke said in general, company leaders are falling into three camps.

Both Burke and Naso have brought back their employees and hybrid schedules. Burke said some in person benefits can't be replaced.

"Those who are developing a career are missing out by not having the connections that are formed in in-person environments," Burke said.

It's tough to say how common remote work is in Cleveland. Engage! Cleveland's survey is more focused on young professionals who tend to have traditional office jobs. But not every job can be done at home.

According to census data from 2021, the most recent year available, about 15% of people in Cleveland's metro area said they worked from home. This up is from 4.6% in 2019.

Visits to downtown Cleveland offices in April were at 60% of pre-pandemic levels. The national average across the country's ten largest metro areas was 49.8%.

Baiju Shah, president and CEO of the Greater Cleveland Partnership, said he continues to hear from employers who are returning to the office — both downtown and in the suburbs.

A year ago, the question was "Will they come in at all?" Now more employers are asking for a few days in the office, and some are pushing for a 100% return.

"We’ll see where we land and when we land," Shah said. "It's a never-ending terrain change until then."

So, what will stick around from the COVID-19 pandemic? Zoom, most likely.

Shah said in-person work is needed to build relationships and for certain kinds or problem solving. And conferences just aren't the same when virtual.

But video-conferencing tools like Zoom and Microsoft Teams have shown that they’re convenient and are now part of business norms.

Another issue touched by the pandemic, and by geopolitical issues, is supply chains. Shah said shortages prompted companies to look at their supply chains and led to things like reshoring — where companies moved their suppliers into different and sometimes closer countries.

But because businesses are increasingly concerned about U.S. relations with other countries, like China and Russia, "friend-shoring" has also emerged. Which is when a company moves parts of its supply chain to countries politically aligned with the U.S.

Another change may be enhanced benefits, and a more holistic approach, Naso said. She said employers seem to be more focused on employee well-being and ways to support them — whether they’re young parents, older workers taking care of aging parents or people looking for more work/life balance.

"It's not one size fits all anymore," Naso said. "You have to put a benefit and perk package together that's flexible enough that supports people where they are in whatever stage of life they’re in."

Some things, like relaxing dress codes, were already happening before COVID-19. And have been accelerated, she said. Employers have also loosed up on when work happens. For example, letting workers start the workday in the morning rather than at 8 a.m. sharp.

Burke said companies have also looked at other changes, like in some cases, whether four 10-hour shifts might work better than five 8-hour shifts.

Another thing that may go away are vaccine mandates, Naso said. Now that the COVID-19 health order is expiring, she said some of them are considering whether to lift it.

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